Timing The Market

“Pent up demand to buy is already
stoking the next gold rush for housing.”

As of the publishing of this report, 2023 was starting to shore up a resurgence of pending sales activity, reversing the downward trends experienced in the second half of 2023. Existing single-family home sales in King, Snohomish, Pierce, and Kitsap counties have posted a 2.4% increase in activity for the first six weeks of the year, compared to the same period in 2022. While that uptick may not seem significant, we are reminded that a year ago, the market was still operating on a sugar high from historically low mortgage interest rates that were less than half of today’s average, and the stock market hadn’t yet begun its steady correction. So, it feels like buyers and sellers have recalibrated, and the housing freeze is thawing.

During a recent survey of Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty agents, 58% of respondents described the current housing market as being in a state of “temporary correction” while another 20% believed this is either “business as usual” or “typical seasonal slowdowns”. A strong majority (64%) believed that the market recovery would be clearly evidenced by Q3-2023, meaning that pressures on supply and demand would begin to bolster increased sales volumes and rising home prices, once again. The bottom will have passed.

What seems clear now, is that a once-upon-a-cycle spring buyer season is upon us in 2023. Patient shoppers will find the best selection of homes priced to sell, with the greatest negotiation power, and when mortgage rates are trending downward (and set up for a future refinancing opportunity ahead). The media will also be proclaiming that the Seattle metro area is “on sale”, highlighting year-over-year declines for the first half of 2023. Meanwhile, agents will report that pent up demand to buy is already stoking the next gold rush for housing—and waiting too long could mean less selection, more competitive offers, and higher prices ahead.

This article first appeared in Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty’s 2023 Forecast Report. To get your digital or print copy of this comprehensive look at the Pacific Northwest’s ever-changing residential real estate landscape click here.

Beckey AndersonMarch 3, 2023